http://gisaxs.com/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=AI_predictions 2026-04-08T14:55:30Z Revision history for this page on the wiki MediaWiki 1.31.7 http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8757&oldid=prev 2026-03-24T18:59:56Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Economic and Political</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:59, 24 March 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l94" >Line 94:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 94:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-01: [https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-primitives Anthropic Economic Index report: economic primitives]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-01: [https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-primitives Anthropic Economic Index report: economic primitives]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-02: Nate Silver: [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-singularity-wont-be-gentle The singularity won&#039;t be gentle: If AI is even half as transformational as Silicon Valley assumes, politics will never be the same again]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-02: Nate Silver: [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-singularity-wont-be-gentle The singularity won&#039;t be gentle: If AI is even half as transformational as Silicon Valley assumes, politics will never be the same again]</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2026-03: [https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-march-2026-report Anthropic Economic Index report: Learning curves]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Job Loss==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Job Loss==</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8756&oldid=prev 2026-03-24T15:52:34Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Job Loss</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 15:52, 24 March 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l125" >Line 125:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 125:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-01: [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6134506 AI, Automation, and Expertise]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-01: [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6134506 AI, Automation, and Expertise]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-02: [https://arachnemag.substack.com/p/the-jevons-paradox-for-intelligence The Jevons Paradox for Intelligence: Fears of AI-induced job loss could not be more wrong]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-02: [https://arachnemag.substack.com/p/the-jevons-paradox-for-intelligence The Jevons Paradox for Intelligence: Fears of AI-induced job loss could not be more wrong]</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2026-03: [https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/689u1g785x8jp6c8v1s21/AKxZ_N15vUxMA3PBtpbr5nM?dl=0&amp;e=1&amp;preview=2026.03.24+Bundles.pdf&amp;rlkey=ottgcu71u1t4mhn6tblvatu8w&amp;st=dj6k0x2o Weak Bundle, Strong Bundle:How AI Redraws Job Boundaries]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Productivity Impact==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Productivity Impact==</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8752&oldid=prev 2026-03-23T17:29:59Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Alignment</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 17:29, 23 March 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l284" >Line 284:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 284:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Alignment==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Alignment==</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2023-03: Leopold Aschenbrenner: [https://www.forourposterity.com/nobodys-on-the-ball-on-agi-alignment/ Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2023-03: Leopold Aschenbrenner: [https://www.forourposterity.com/nobodys-on-the-ball-on-agi-alignment/ Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2024-03: [https://<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">static1</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">squarespace.com/static/65392ca578eee444c445c9de/t/6606f95edb20e8118074a344</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">1711733370985</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">human-values-and-alignment-29MAR2024</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">pdf </del>What are human values, and how do we align AI to them?] ([https://meaningalignment.substack.com/p/0480e023-98c0-4633-a604-990d3ac880ac blog])</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2024-03: [https://<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">arxiv</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">org</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">abs</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">2404</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">10636 </ins>What are human values, and how do we align AI to them?] ([https://meaningalignment.substack.com/p/0480e023-98c0-4633-a604-990d3ac880ac blog])</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025: Joe Carlsmith: [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/how-do-we-solve-the-alignment-problem How do we solve the alignment problem?] Introduction to an essay series on paths to safe, useful superintelligence</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025: Joe Carlsmith: [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/how-do-we-solve-the-alignment-problem How do we solve the alignment problem?] Introduction to an essay series on paths to safe, useful superintelligence</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/what-is-it-to-solve-the-alignment What is it to solve the alignment problem?] Also: to avoid it? Handle it? Solve it forever? Solve it completely? ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/16617671-what-is-it-to-solve-the-alignment-problem audio version])</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/what-is-it-to-solve-the-alignment What is it to solve the alignment problem?] Also: to avoid it? Handle it? Solve it forever? Solve it completely? ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/16617671-what-is-it-to-solve-the-alignment-problem audio version])</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8751&oldid=prev 2026-03-23T17:29:16Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Alignment</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 17:29, 23 March 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l295" >Line 295:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 295:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/how-human-like-do-safe-ai-motivations?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=1022275&amp;post_id=178666988&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=5av1bk&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email How human-like do safe AI motivations need to be?] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/18175429-how-human-like-do-safe-ai-motivations-need-to-be audio version])</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/how-human-like-do-safe-ai-motivations?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=1022275&amp;post_id=178666988&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=5av1bk&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email How human-like do safe AI motivations need to be?] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/18175429-how-human-like-do-safe-ai-motivations-need-to-be audio version])</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/building-ais-that-do-human-like-philosophy Building AIs that do human-like philosophy: AIs will face philosophical questions humans can&#039;t answer for them] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/18591342-building-ais-that-do-human-like-philosophy audio version])</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/building-ais-that-do-human-like-philosophy Building AIs that do human-like philosophy: AIs will face philosophical questions humans can&#039;t answer for them] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/18591342-building-ais-that-do-human-like-philosophy audio version])</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">*# [https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/on-restraining-ai-development-for?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=1022275&amp;post_id=191385185&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=5av1bk&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email On restraining AI development for the sake of safety] ([https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/18869440-on-restraining-ai-development-for-the-sake-of-safety audio version])</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: Dario Amodei: [https://www.darioamodei.com/post/the-urgency-of-interpretability The Urgency of Interpretability]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: Dario Amodei: [https://www.darioamodei.com/post/the-urgency-of-interpretability The Urgency of Interpretability]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8715&oldid=prev 2026-03-09T14:38:19Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Capability Scaling</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:38, 9 March 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l33" >Line 33:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 33:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-10: Dan Hendrycks et al.: [https://www.agidefinition.ai/paper.pdf A Definition of AGI]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-10: Dan Hendrycks et al.: [https://www.agidefinition.ai/paper.pdf A Definition of AGI]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-01: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.07364 On the universal definition of intelligence]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-01: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.07364 On the universal definition of intelligence]</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">==Recursive Self Improvement (RSI)==</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2026-02: [https://80000hours.org/articles/how-ai-driven-feedback-loops-could-make-things-very-crazy-very-fast/ How AI-driven feedback loops could make things very crazy, very fast]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Progress Models==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Progress Models==</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8712&oldid=prev 2026-03-06T22:12:44Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Strategic/Policy</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 22:12, 6 March 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l326" >Line 326:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 326:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-07: [https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/0dc382a2086f6a054eeb17e8a531bd9625b8e6e5.pdf Anthropic: Build AI in America] ([https://www.anthropic.com/news/build-ai-in-america blog])</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-07: [https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/0dc382a2086f6a054eeb17e8a531bd9625b8e6e5.pdf Anthropic: Build AI in America] ([https://www.anthropic.com/news/build-ai-in-america blog])</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-12: [https://asi-prevention.com/ How middle powers may prevent the development of artificial superintelligence]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-12: [https://asi-prevention.com/ How middle powers may prevent the development of artificial superintelligence]</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2026-03: [https://humanstatement.org/ The Pro-Human AI Declaration]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Restriction==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Restriction==</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8709&oldid=prev 2026-03-05T17:30:30Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Capability Scaling</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 17:30, 5 March 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l14" >Line 14:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 14:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-09: [https://www.julian.ac/blog/2025/09/27/failing-to-understand-the-exponential-again/ Failing to Understand the Exponential, Again]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-09: [https://www.julian.ac/blog/2025/09/27/failing-to-understand-the-exponential-again/ Failing to Understand the Exponential, Again]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-02: Ryan Greenblatt: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rRbDNQLfihiHbXytf/distinguish-between-inference-scaling-and-larger-tasks-use Distinguish between inference scaling and &quot;larger tasks use more compute&quot;]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2026-02: Ryan Greenblatt: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rRbDNQLfihiHbXytf/distinguish-between-inference-scaling-and-larger-tasks-use Distinguish between inference scaling and &quot;larger tasks use more compute&quot;]</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2026-03: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03992 Measuring AI R&amp;D Automation] ([https://astrangeattractor.substack.com/p/measuring-ai-r-and-d-automation?triedRedirect=true blog])</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Scaling Laws==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Scaling Laws==</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8696&oldid=prev 2026-02-28T19:38:19Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Strategic/Policy</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:38, 28 February 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l315" >Line 315:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 315:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>**# Strict Liability: Hold AI companies responsible for outcomes.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>**# Strict Liability: Hold AI companies responsible for outcomes.</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>**# Tiered Regulation: Low regulation on tool-AI, strictest regulation on AGI (general, capable, autonomous systems).</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>**# Tiered Regulation: Low regulation on tool-AI, strictest regulation on AGI (general, capable, autonomous systems).</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2025-04: [https://x.com/deanwball Dean W. Ball]: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.11501 A Framework for the Private Governance of Frontier Artificial Intelligence]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: Helen Toner: [https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach?source=queue Nonproliferation is the wrong approach to AI misuse]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: Helen Toner: [https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach?source=queue Nonproliferation is the wrong approach to AI misuse]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: MIRI: [https://techgov.intelligence.org/research/ai-governance-to-avoid-extinction AI Governance to Avoid Extinction: The Strategic Landscape and Actionable Research Questions]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: MIRI: [https://techgov.intelligence.org/research/ai-governance-to-avoid-extinction AI Governance to Avoid Extinction: The Strategic Landscape and Actionable Research Questions]</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8695&oldid=prev 2026-02-26T14:34:46Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Surveys of Opinions/Predictions</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:34, 26 February 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l181" >Line 181:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 181:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: Helen Toner: [https://helentoner.substack.com/p/long-timelines-to-advanced-ai-have &quot;Long&quot; timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-04: Helen Toner: [https://helentoner.substack.com/p/long-timelines-to-advanced-ai-have &quot;Long&quot; timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-05: [https://theaidigest.org/ai2025-analysis-may AI 2025 Forecasts - May Update]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-05: [https://theaidigest.org/ai2025-analysis-may AI 2025 Forecasts - May Update]</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2026-02: [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-39070-w Lay beliefs about the badness, likelihood, and importance of human extinction]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Bad Outcomes==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Bad Outcomes==</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager http://gisaxs.com/index.php?title=AI_predictions&diff=8687&oldid=prev 2026-02-23T20:57:22Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Near-term</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:57, 23 February 2026</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l156" >Line 156:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 156:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-07: [https://cfg.eu/advanced-ai-possible-futures/ Advanced AI: Possible futures] Five scenarios for how the AI-transition could unfold</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-07: [https://cfg.eu/advanced-ai-possible-futures/ Advanced AI: Possible futures] Five scenarios for how the AI-transition could unfold</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-11: [https://android-dreams.ai/ Android Dreams]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* 2025-11: [https://android-dreams.ai/ Android Dreams]</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* 2026-02: [https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Citrini]: [https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Insightful Analysis of Current State==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Insightful Analysis of Current State==</div></td></tr> </table>

KevinYager